Ok...so read the lead story on Lifhaus....Our Telekom moving ahead with its upgrade. Good thing for the customer and so with such big investment, are they just protecting their investment. Conspiracy theories have it that to protect its risky investment bringing a competitor that does not have the potential to pose serious threats immediately should help Our Telekom get back on its feet....and why would the government not agree?....in the name of protecting SINPF interests?.....then look at the people involved - aha...the Gizo boys, Mike Hemmer, John Beverley...and should we toss in Austin Holmes....Oh! did somebody tell me the logging industry is dying?.....oh! and did someone tell me that bemobile has yet to survey a single plot of land for its towers?....oh....and did someone tell me that it may end up "renting/co-sharing" the telekom towers?.....uh oh, sounds fishy...should we set our friend Sasako on this trail...i bet you he will soon!!!!
the Digicel roar that threatened to take us by surprise suddenly became a soundless whimper with only Desmond Sese still crying over their dumping!!!!!
you fala moa
The Digicel roar became a soundless whimper
Thu, 01/07/2010 - 21:38
I guess it is quite normal that we relegade events that are unexpected, unusual or plain incomprehensible and unacceptable to conspiracies. The issue of the mobile license to BeMobile at the expense of much favoured Digicel has the potential to do just that amongst the expectant public: The result has caused people to grasp wildly for comfort in the midst of their discomfort.
Comfort & reason comes easily in conspiracy theories. Neo is advancing one right now: That somehow SIG, NPF, the Mobile applicants tender Evaluation committee and implicitly Our Telekom are all having a good old dirty affair behind our backs. That the old boys connections go up even to the cabinet level!
Whatever conspiracies are out there, we can easily conjur up more. We in the Solomons are especially good at it. Locals call it 'remix'. One good thing about these stories, conspiracies or remixes is that they are absolutely good for a good laugh.
How hard is it for people to accept the fact that Digicel got beat fair and square this time round. They can always resubmit their tender application in April 2011 (next yr) when the Telco act allows for more Mobile companies to enter the market.
In the meantime let us not discount BeMobile. These guys are maybe new but they are fresh from the battlefield with Digicel in PNG. They are battle hardened, scarred and have already got the taste of the modern cut-throat mobile competition war in their turf. They will come to the Solomons with all guns blazing and with a whole assortment of business arsenal like we have never seen before. It will be a war between the homeboys and those poroman across the border. We wait.
pardon my ignorance in how the business world operates. But perhaps Neo is onto something here. All indications were there that government was leaning towards Digicel. A government source which was quoted on Lifhaus also revealed that Cabinet had already endorsed Digicel's application. Digicel in good faith had gone ahead with setting up a preliminary office, conduct surveys (which Desmond Sese admitted to) and establish what it could under its current license. The sudden change in heart from Government does raise a lot of questions. Their attempts to quell these rumours and heresay has only fueled more speculation.
Having said that, I am sure that BeMobile with its international partners may be up to the task. They have just not made advance preparations, it would be very difficult to meet their obligations unless they piggyback on some of Our Telekom's current infrastructure....which of course will only add to the conspiracy theories!!!...
Although i am of the opinion that there is no conspiracy associated with the issue of the mobile license to BeMobile, I agree with GrafixFarm that 'the sudden change in heart from Government does raise a lot of question'. I will bite hook, line & sinkers purely as an academic excercise and provide a hypathetical busienss case prediction regarding the current situation.
Main Hypothesis: Issue of License to BeMobile is part of a longterm plan by NPF to reduce its share composition in Our Telekom.
Arguement: In any business environment, holding a share in excess of 50% in any one company within a competitive environment is risky. NPF holds a high 60+% share in Telekom, which is ok in a monopolistic situation however now the status quo has changed. Not only will a 2nd competitor come in, a third or even fourth competitor will be allowed to come in in 2011 onwards. In addition to the mobile market, the once closed ISP sector will also be liberalised. Our Telekom market on both voice (mobile) and data (Internet) will be challenged and reduced by competition. NPF's investment risk factor will increase in a competitive environment. What will be the standard thing to do? Reduce your share (risk) by selling.
Ok let's now look at Cable & Wireless share of around 30% in Our Telekom. CW has been pulling out from its operation in the Pacific. With competition now in the SI, CW will be looking at possibly selling its shares.
What would be the smart thing for NPF to do? Get on SIGs good side by keeping 35% of its share in Our Telekom and sell the rest (30+%) of the shares to ICSI - the Investment arm of SIG. So now sharholding of Telekom is as follows:
NPF - 40%
ICSI - 25% (est)
Cable & Wireless - 35%
Now what if Cable & Wireless want to also sell its shares in Our Telekom? Who do you think will grab that Golden opportunity? of course the new competitor in the form of GEMS of Hong Kong and Trilogy of US who together owns 35% of BeMobile. Now lets say that GEMS and Trilogy bought the Cable & Wireless shares in Our Telekom. BeMobile will then effectively own 35% of Our Telekom. Now the new shareholding of Our Telekom will be:
NPF - 40%
ICSI - 25%
BeMobile - 35%
This is a typical business merger and arcquisition tactic played all the time overseas and i will not be surprised if this is what's going to happen. The only thing that may prevenet this from happening is the new Telco Act and the new Telco commission - whether such merger tactics are allowed under the new Telco Act. Effectively it will mean that the competitive nature of the business is 'watered down' and thus may go against the original intention of the Telco Act. But then who knows the Lawyers can have a field day on this if it should happen.
Iumi story nomoa.
Oh no. One major flaw in above is this: I assumed that Our Telekom is the business. What if Our Telekom decides to follow what Telikom PNG did and create a separate Mobile company? Lets say, Our Telekom creates a mobile company called 'BeLoMobile', which is 100% owned by Our Telekom. To attract new capitalisation Our Telekom puts 50% of its shares on sell for new partners. You go from there.
hey BigRedFish, your hypothesis then proves true if events in the future turn out to be as you alluded to. Now I was merely asking questions to probe a little deeper into this issue because I am just not convinced that the license issue was dealt in a manner that took to heart the interest of Solomon Islanders. but thanks for the thoughts on our innate human nature to equate something we cannot explain with conspiracies etc....its definitely a good read.
But if your hypothesis came to be true then we pray that in 2011, Digicel comes to play and provide real competition.
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